Internal Research

Baloch sub-nationalist groups (BSNGs) Terrorism Atlas

Internal Research Unit*

Baloch sub-nationalist groups (BSNGs) Terrorism Atlas is a chronicle comprising of ethno-terrorists’ attacks conducted by BSNGs since the year 2004, in Pakistan. It is an accumulation of data regarding violent attacks by these groups, once the responsibility has been claimed, which implies that the Atlas contains information regarding attacks that have been accounted for by the BSNGs. In cases of occurrences for which no such particular is available, such an event has not been incorporated in the database.

A thorough research through secondary sources of data, spanning over several months has been done for the compilation and constant updating of the BSNGs Terrorism Atlas. Daily monitoring of newspapers, media channels, social media accounts of BSNGs and government officials was part of the procedure. For factual information with reference to every distinct terrorist attack, local and national media sources have been given preference over foreign media sources. For example, if a specific terrorist attack is reported by a certain section of foreign media only, then such an attack will not be included in the database. For those terrorist attacks which were reported by ground sources, the verification has been done through triangulation method.

The database utitlizes six major variables with their respective set of sub- variables for analysing the terrorist attacks conducted by BSNGs. Those six key variables and their corresponding sets of sub-variables are as follows:

1.Casualties – ‘Casualties’ include both the number of people killed and injured. Casualties among various segments of the civilian population and the different types of security forces are treated as another indicator.

2.Attack Type - The ‘Attack Type’ variable identifies the tactics used by these

*This is a routine study conducted by the researchers at the Academics Department of the Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research.

Stratagem

terrorist groups which include missile attacks, hand grenade attacks, kidnappings, rocket attacks, beheadings, landmine blasts, firing, sabotage, targeted killings, political assassination, bombs and improvised explosive device blasts.

3.Perpetrator Group – ‘Perpetrator Group’ highlights the faction that has claimed responsibility for any particular attack.

4.Target Type – Under this variable, the individuals, gatherings, places or sites targeted by BSNGs have been counted in. These targets included political and tribal figures, security forces, law enforcing authorities, gas pipelines, railway stations (including railway tracks and railway trains), electrical transmission infrastructure, media outlets and journalists, educationists and educational institutions, religious figures, government offices, foreigners, and different segments of civilians (labourers, students, etc).

5.Weapon Type – The ‘Weapon Type’ variable draws attention to different weapons that have been used by BSNGs to carry out activity. These weapons may be firearms, explosives, bombs, dynamite, etc.

6.Place of Attack – The Atlas also lists the ‘Place of Attack’, for example the province, division, district, city or other area.

Analysis of Terrorist Attacks Conducted by BSNGs

The year 2004 was selected as the starting point for compiling information about terrorist attacks conducted by the BSNGs. Most academicians indicate 2004 as the year in which the on-going Baloch insurgency mainly began, hence the CSCR Internal Research Unit selected this particular year as a point of reference.1 Although some academicians have mentioned late 1990s and early 2000s as the starting point of the insurgency, majority’s opinion has been given preference.

The graph below illustrates the number of terrorist attacks conducted by the BSNGs, starting 2004. Since 2014, the insurgency has been waning, as can be observed. A number of factors have contributed in weakening the insurgency

1 Mickey Kupecz, “Pakistan’s Baloch Insurgency: History, Conflict Drivers, and Regional Implications,”

International Affairs Review 20, no. 3 (Spring 2012): 95-110.

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Internal Research

and thus moving it towards its declining phase. The main contributing factor is the focus of security forces to target second and third tier leadership of BSNGs.2 Moreover, more than 3,000 Baloch sub-nationalists have surrendered as part of the government-amnesty scheme announced in August 2015.3 Another major factor which contributed to the weakening of the insurgency is the increased intensity of infighting between BSNGs.

To access the complete database, subscribe to the Baloch sub-nationalist groups (BSNGs)

Terrorism Atlas through our website www.cscr.pk.

2Fahad Nabeel, “Restoration of Peace in Balochistan,” Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research, last modified December 23, 2017, https://cscr.pk/explore/themes/politics-governance/restoration-peace- balochistan/.

3 “Pakistan Security Report 2017 Full Report,” Pak Institute for Peace Studies, last modified January 6, 2018, https://www.pakpips.com/article/book/pakistan-security-report-2017.