The Ramification of Modi’s Win on the Regional Peace
Rubia Shoukat^*

With the assumption of premiership for the second term, following a historic electoral victory, South Asian watchers are interested in knowing how Modi will interact with India’s immediate neighbourhood during his current term in office. The research essay provides a background of how India fared in its relationship with South Asian countries during Modi’s first term and what course will the relationships between India and its immediate neighbourhood take under Modi’s second term in office.

India’s South Asia Policy under Modi’s First Term

Following victory in 2014 elections, Narendra Modi’s administration was drawn into some disputes with the regional countries which had put regional peace and security at risk. In 2015, the Madhesi Crisis in Nepal and the border disputes strained the India-Nepal relations. Nepal accused India of restricting the flow of trade on the check posts, while India denied the blame.

India-Sri Lanka relations deteriorated with Mahinda Rajapaksha’s return to power. The Sri Lankan government has been inclined toward China with the signing of the infrastructure projects as a part of Belt and Road initiative. New Delhi was concerned by the docking of Chinese submarines in Colombo harbour in 2014.¹ Modi, after omitting his visit to Maldives during the Indian Ocean neighbourhood tour, disturbed the bilateral relations between the two countries.² Abdulla Yameen’s pro-China government and signing of a free trade agreement with China further made it a bit more problematic.³

On the other hand, Pakistani leadership believes that India’s offensive posture and induction of ‘lethal weapons’ has threatened the former as well as the regional stability in South Asia.⁴ Increased Line of Control violations in past five years and the growing human rights violations by Indian security forces in the Indian-held Kashmir has worsened the nature of bilateral relationship between the two neighbours.

With the weaponization of space, India is set on her course to threaten regional peace and stability. Space is the common heritage of all mankind. India is militarizing it on less-compelling basis of national security.

Following Pathankot attack in 2016, the Indian narrative became more hostile toward Pakistan as they accused Pakistan-based militants of the attack. Few months later, The Uri military camp attack in 2016, disturbed the bilateral relations further, to which India responded with the so called surgical strikes. During Modi’s first tenure, the tensions on LOC were at an all-time high.

The Pulwama attack added further fuel to hostility when Modi and his government took a jab at Pakistan; pinning the blame of the attack on Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Muhammmad. Responding to Indian allegations, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan asked India to provide actionable intelligence so that Pakistani authorities can take action. However, the proofs were not provided till night of 26^th February, when the Indian Air Force violated Pakistani airspace and claimed of launching ‘airstrikes’ on an alleged militant camp of Jaish-e-Muhammad. Following the attack, numerous local and international media outlets discredited Indian claim of carrying out airstrikes and killing hundreds of militants. The alleged ‘airstrikes’ struck a mountain side in the Balakot region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Next morning, Pakistan retaliated after warning India of reserving the right to counterattack. Pakistani fighter jets targeted barren land in IHK.

While chasing down Pakistani jets, an Indian MIG 21 fighter entered into Pakistan-administered Kashmir, which PAF managed to shoot down and captured the pilot. The capture of the Indian pilot by Pakistan led to the real possibility of full-scale war, but thanks to the timely mediation of the US and some Gulf countries as well as the Pakistani prime minister’s peace gesture of releasing the captured pilot unconditionally, a temporary lull has been established in the extremely volatile situation.⁵

Later, an Indian submarine was also contained by the Pakistani Navy, which attempted to intrude Pakistani waters and further contributed toward hostility between the two countries.

India has constantly been blaming Pakistan for harbouring terrorism in Kashmir and asserting that Pakistani authorities have not done what is needed to be done in order to counter Kashmir-focused insurgent outfits. On the other hand, Pakistan holds India responsible for providing support to Islamist terror outfits and Baloch ethno-nationalist militant outfits to cause destabilization in the former’s territory. It points out the capturing of Kulbushan Yadav as a major example of Indian hostile designs toward Pakistan.

Over the past five years, the BJP government has repeatedly turned a blind eye on attacks by Hindu fringe groups on religious minorities. According to data reports of religious based hate crimes - mainly targeting Muslims - have spiked significantly since 2014.⁶ According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), Hindu vigilante groups have killed dozens of people in recent years, many of them Muslims, for allegedly slaughtering or transporting cows - an animal that is considered sacred by many Hindus.⁷

Modi and his hardliner anti-Pakistan behaviour has the potential to adversely impact the regional politics of South Asia owing to the power play between the two nuclear rivals which are always at daggers drawn. His anti-Pakistan behaviour is causing notable damage to the Indian economy and industry. Pakistan has closed its airspace for flights to and from India. As a result of the ban, foreign carriers using Indian airspace have been forced to take costly detours because they cannot fly over Pakistan.⁸

Pakistan has banned India from using Pakistani infrastructure for its trade with Afghanistan which has caused a massive price hike in Afghani markets as well and all this will not change until and unless India’s anti-Pakistan rhetoric changes. Additionally, India-Pakistan relations are further complicated by the turbulent regional dynamics centred on Afghanistan.

The current India-Pakistan relations are directly impacting CPEC. India from the start has been criticizing the CPEC. India believes that it is a threat to India’s sovereignty. Its claim is rooted in the assertion that the passing of CPEC through Pakistan-administered-Kashmir challenges Indian sovereignty.⁹ Despite holding prospects of benefitting India, India has been blamed for suppressing the megaproject.

Previously, India boycotted the 19^th SAARC Summit that was to be held in Islamabad because of Uri attack in the Indian-administered Kashmir.¹⁰ India’s boycott led to a regional boycott. Consequently, the summit was called off leaving SAARC hostage to Indo-Pak rivalry.¹¹

Future of India’s South Asia Policy

Modi having been re-elected for the next five years in India, is expected to push a more aggressive Hindu nationalist agenda. Muslims in India constitute 14 per cent of the total population and the largest minority that seems to be threatened by Modi’s win. Some changes in the laws regarding the IHK are expected, making it easier for Hindu population to live and buy properties in the state which will further worsen the security situation in IHK. India is already modernizing its weaponry to counter Pakistan and China.¹² Modi’s ‘hegemonic’ design is not just a threat to Pakistan and China but to other countries in the region as well. India is also putting efforts to dominate the Indian Ocean and gain influence over smaller countries such as Sri Lanka and Maldives. 

The Indian Prime Minister in his recent oath taking ceremony did not invite the SAARC countries and instead gave preference to BIMSTEC members which put the future of SAARC in jeopardy.

After resuming the office, PM Modi invited the leaders from the neighbouring countries and held meetings. This was termed as a Mini SAARC by the media. This was a good initiative for strengthening relationships among the South Asian countries. Modi’s government is also planning to share technology by introducing a SAARC satellite.

Narendra Modi’s prime focus on foreign policy has made a few commentators around the world argue that India is witnessing a change in its foreign policy and there has emerged a ‘Modi Doctrine’ based on ‘Neighbourhood-First Policy’. However, an in-depth study on the theme suggests that there are no major doctrinal changes in Indian foreign policy; the present government is acting mostly within the guidelines set up by previous Prime Ministers of India especially in regard to India’s South Asia policy. ¹³

India in the coming five years must work on strengthening regional cooperation and should put constructive efforts for cooperative relations between India and the regional countries. This will be beneficial for the entire South-Asian region. India must develop policies such as Look East policy for the South Asian countries.

Conclusion

Here are some policy recommendations that Indian policymakers need to undertake regarding India’s South Asia policy. These policy recommendations can be useful in enhancing regional security and expanding the scope for cooperation. India must engage all the countries in the region for mutual cooperation. Trade and commercial relations, where quick advances are possible, should be isolated from differences of bilateral relationships in other fields. An early restoration of the ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control in Kashmir will help end further deterioration of the security environment and create space for progress. India should take unilateral steps, wherever possible, to improve relations. It has taken such initiatives in the past—for example, granting most-favoured-nation status to Pakistan in 1996. India must not support proxy war in Afghanistan and should start a peace process in Afghanistan through usage of soft power. India should take part in CPEC to benefit itself and facilitate trade in South and Central Asia. India must try to resolve issues with all the regional countries on the basis of political dialogue. Some collaborative measures must be taken on bilateral basis with all the regional countries. These measures can be economic or social in nature. India must work on intelligence sharing between the militaries and intelligence agencies of the regional countries for the betterment of regional security.

India and Pakistan have had sour relationship since the partition of the sub-continent. Both the countries have faced four conflicts and a number of border skirmishes. Disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir has been the long standing issue between both the countries. India and Pakistan are committing themselves to a costly arms race that inhibits them from concentrating on other national interests such as economic growth, political stability and infrastructural development. India Pakistan relations are very crucial for regional and global security.

The Indian PM should also put constructive efforts for cooperative relations between India and regional countries such as Bangladesh, China, Maldives, and Sri Lanka. India should continue strengthening its strong economic ties with China to dilute the border issues. This will be beneficial in easing down the border tensions. It is imperative that sanity prevails across the region and Indian government changes its attitude for the betterment and stability of the region.